EU's May Day

Yesterday saw Mrs May's first major speech outlining the detail on 'BREXIT means BREXIT.' The only analysis one can make is that HMG is working towards a 'hard' BREXIT outside the Single Market, ECJ, freedom of movement and significant budget payment but trying to strike a free trade deal. The paper briefly summarises the content of her speech but then examines where the pit falls lie and where the key negotiating strengths and weaknesses rest. We look at likely timelines and probabilities and the impact on capital markets. Overall, while we expect a modest slowdown in 2017, we remain of the view the UK economy will surprise on the upside. Please contact us for a copy of the note