The Shadow Price of Gold

We are delighted to publish this morning a fascinating paper written by Scott Evans and Matt Fletcher examining the theoretical link in the gold price with the US monetary base. Their analysis suggests that gold (and silver) are materially undervalued asset classes which, using their methodology, suggests the gold price could more than double to over $3000 an ounce. The examines the long term linkage between the US monetary base and the gold price. While the recent rally in the gold price has recently been primarily driven, in our view, falling global bond yields, the outlook for a continuing global monetary expansion suggests to us that gold remains fundamentally undervalued. What is clear is that global long bonds are compressing further and in many cases are negative. This is an unprecedented global phenomenon and gold remains a potential hedge in this novel and highly uncertain environment.