The consensual view is that the UK consumer is under the cosh. Real wages are growing at less than CPI, interest rates are ticking up and the economic risks are perceived on the downside, hence the squeeze is on. But is this really true? Our analysis suggests, with some caveats, a cautiously more optimistic outlook.While the noise may be unrelentingly negative- be it political procrastination, weak and unstable Government and an unprecedented negative media narrative, so long as confidence holds, the consumer is set to surprise on the upside again. If you would like a copy of the note please contact us.