Walbrook and Peel Hunt in collaborative note examining EU referendum

The issue is dominating client meetings and a number of high profile reports have been written predicting that sun will cease to shine should the UK vote to leave. This report takes a more optimistic view of the UK's long term prospects. We examine the legal arrangements for leaving. We believe divorce would be one of evolution not revolution, given a) the likely legal time-scale to withdrawal b) legal obligations covering treaty law under the Vienna Convention c) the probable gradualist approach to amending EU directives. We look at the correlation between economic size and wealth- there isn't one! What matters is not size but the policies followed. We conclude so long as a future UK government adopted reasonably clear and open policies after an initial period of uncertainty UK growth would likely exceed that if the UK stayed in . (Incidentally the recent PwC report for the CBI drew the same conclusion.) We examine trading relations, the impact on the City, fiscal policy and inflation as well as the outlook for migration trends and business and consumer confidence.In each case we are relatively unperturbed and in some cases see opportunity from BREXIT. This is not to say however that there may well be significant turbulence as the referendum approaches. While UK equities are effectively an international asset class- only 25% or so of FTSE100 revenues are domestic- over 50% of UK equities are owned by overseas investors.Hot money flows can have an impact. However we would use any such dislocation as a buying opportunity.