Global Gravity v Central Banks

We have published a presentation outlining our current thoughts on capital markets. The key themes are political risk, global bond compression and inflationary risk, UK consumer, fiscal and business outlook, an outline on our thoughts on the US and Eurozone as well as a valuation analysis. Please contact us for a copy.

The Shadow Price of Gold

We are delighted to publish this morning a fascinating paper written by Scott Evans and Matt Fletcher examining the theoretical link in the gold price with the US monetary base. Their analysis suggests that gold (and silver) are materially undervalued asset classes which, using their methodology, suggests the gold price could more than double to over $3000 an ounce. The examines the long term linkage between the US monetary base and the gold price.

Under Pressure- risk of 'no deal' hits sterling

In this note we look at the outlook for Sterling which, in the short term at least, is tied into an analysis of the likely BREXIT outcome, the currency implications for the economy, interest rates and inflation concluding with the impact for equity investors. There are a lot of moving parts but in conclusion while we think it understandable that Sterling is under pressure we argue that, outside major political dislocation, it is oversold.