The last decade has been a very difficult one for the Eurozone. There is little let up in the disappointing news with negative last quarter German and Italian GDP growth being the latest example, as the ECB has lowered growth forecasts for 2019. QE may be winding down but with 10 year German Bunds yielding 13bp it is hardly a picture of normality. This note examines the structural challenges facing the EU and we conclude that while disintgration is unlikely without major reform the Eurozone will continue to underperform other regions. A copy of the note is available on request.
We have published a note titled 'Does the Chinese tail wag the dog?' This note is designed to examine China's connectivity to the West and what the impact could be should Chinese growth continue to stumble. Counterintuitively we conclude a Chinese slowdown may actually be good news, in the round, for western growth. A copy of the note is available on request.
We have published a note examining the gap between UK domestic stock valuations and UK quoted global plays. Last year an already significant valuation gap between domestics and internationals expanded and this note explores if this discrepancy is justified or not. As always much depends on ones perception of likely economic or political outcome but, while we accept there is considerable political risk, for the UK, over the next few months, our analysis suggests that UK domestics are already discounting all but the hardest of landings. Please contact us for a copy of the note.
Our director Ewen Stewart had the great honour of giving the Adam Smith Lecture at Pembroke College Cambridge on Tuesday 13th November and spoke on the subject of 'The Abolition of Risk.
Our Director, Ewen Stewart has been invited to speak at the Bruges Group Conference 'Brexit, or Bust' on 10th November.v He will examine the UK's global trade balance and in particular the relationship with the EU and how it might evolve post BREXIT. If you would be interested in attending please contact us directly.