Post the recent disappointing Q1 GDP numbers we have published a report outlining our thoughts on the prospects for the UK economy. We remain fairly upbeat. More so for 2019 than 2018 driven by a resumption of positive real wage growth, some , perhaps miss-guided, scope for fiscal stimulus and a likely, at most, very cautious and slow unwinding of the loose monetary policy.
We have published an update on the state of the negotiations with a broadly positive prognosis for a positive conclusion. Some micro risks remain, notably in the food and beverage sectors and services generally but don't see BREXIT as a material market risk.
We have published out outlook paper for Q2 titles 'Setback provides opportunity' outlining the prospects for markets going forward. Despite multiple risks we believe the recent sell off provides an opportunity and would overweight equities, particularly in the UK and Eurozone.
This note examines the outlook for UK equity income. We see headline growth slowing to just 2.2% in 2018. However the underlying picture is stronger after stripping out the impact of recent sterling strength. The note attached below examines the greatest threat, in our view, to equity markets, normalising bond yields, but conclude the underlying trends are quite different between the US and the UK and Eurozone. The price of money in the UK and the debt equity arbitrage remains largely intact.
This paper is a thematic piece looking at the long term impact of demographic change. While the short term implications are perhaps marginal current trends suggest the world will be a very different place in a generation with significant implications for Western growth and geopolitical stability. For example wider Europe's share of global population has fallen from 21.7% in 1950 to 9.9% today. The decline is embedded. By contrast Africa's population has increased six fold since 1950, with a current average age of 19. Its 1950 8.1% share is 16.4% today and projected to be 25% by 2050.