We have published a note this morning examining the health of the UK consumer. Our conclusions are despite undoubted political and confidence risk the underlying health is extraordinarily robust. We believe we are on the cusp of a significant increase in wage growth driven by a number of factors, but notably increased labour supply shortages, continuing employment creation, accommodate monetary policy, rising tax receipts giving £20-30bn of fiscal fire power and improving personal balance sheets.
UK politcal impasse over BREXIT is unprecidented in modern times. Our note examines the possible range of outcomes, ascribing probability, examining the potential impact on capital markets. Please contact us for a copy of the note.
This paper examines institutional asset allocation and changing ownership of equities. We think understanding the changing basis of ownership and asset allocation is important as it can throw light on who the marginal buyers may be with a possible impact on valuations and volatility. It may also give a greater understanding to the motivations/ timeframes of underlying investors. A copy of the note is available on request.
The last decade has been a very difficult one for the Eurozone. There is little let up in the disappointing news with negative last quarter German and Italian GDP growth being the latest example, as the ECB has lowered growth forecasts for 2019. QE may be winding down but with 10 year German Bunds yielding 13bp it is hardly a picture of normality. This note examines the structural challenges facing the EU and we conclude that while disintgration is unlikely without major reform the Eurozone will continue to underperform other regions. A copy of the note is available on request.
We have published a note titled 'Does the Chinese tail wag the dog?' This note is designed to examine China's connectivity to the West and what the impact could be should Chinese growth continue to stumble. Counterintuitively we conclude a Chinese slowdown may actually be good news, in the round, for western growth. A copy of the note is available on request.