We have published a note looking at the economy the new government will inherit. We examine the consumer and business investment outlook, the fiscal position and monetary policy. We also contrast the different policy choices facing the UK. If you would like a copy please contact us.
We have published a presentation outlining our current thoughts on capital markets. The key themes are political risk, global bond compression and inflationary risk, UK consumer, fiscal and business outlook, an outline on our thoughts on the US and Eurozone as well as a valuation analysis. Please contact us for a copy.
We are delighted to publish this morning a fascinating paper written by Scott Evans and Matt Fletcher examining the theoretical link in the gold price with the US monetary base. Their analysis suggests that gold (and silver) are materially undervalued asset classes which, using their methodology, suggests the gold price could more than double to over $3000 an ounce. The examines the long term linkage between the US monetary base and the gold price.
We had an article published, by the Scotsman, examining the potential impact on Brexit on the Scottish economy and its relevance to the UK Union. The article can be read by clicking on the link below.
In this note we look at the outlook for Sterling which, in the short term at least, is tied into an analysis of the likely BREXIT outcome, the currency implications for the economy, interest rates and inflation concluding with the impact for equity investors. There are a lot of moving parts but in conclusion while we think it understandable that Sterling is under pressure we argue that, outside major political dislocation, it is oversold.