The note outlines the prospects for UK consumer spending highlighting the Walbrook Consumer Spending Model. We see spending growth slowing in 2018 and 2019 but by less than the consensus view. Overall we remain cautiously optimistic on UK consumer prospects. Please contact us for a copy of the note.
While it remains our view that a Labour victory is unlikely with the polls narrowing we look at the Labour manifesto and examine the implications for the economy generally looking at tax, the consumer and the likely effect on sterling, bonds and equities.
This paper looks at the possible scenarios for a post EU agreement and examines the economic and capital market implications under a so-called hard BREXIT
Investors are starting to focus on the possibility that Donald Trump might be impeached. This note looks at the possible process but more importantly the implications should such an outcome occur. Please contact us for a copy
Recent data has suggested the UK consumer boom may be over as inflationary pressures reduce spending power. Our analysis is that 2017 and 2018 will show a moderation in spending growth but by less than is generally considered. Real wage growth may well dip into negative territory but this will be off set largely by a continuing fall in the cost of borrowing which remains the principle sensitivity. Please contact us for a copy of the note.