Boris Johnson's conjuring trick. Keeping everyone happy?

With the possibility that Boris Johnston will be the next Prime Minister we examine how it may be possible to reconcile his pledge to leave the EU on 31st October with a broadly hostile Parliament. We think the possibility of meeting this pledge is somewhat higher than the consensus view but we also explain why in reality it simply kicks the can further down the road. A copy of the note is available on request.

Lessons from the European Elections-probability of hard BREXIT increased

We have published an analysis of the European elections examining the implications for capital markets. UK politics is polarising and with it political risk. We look at the implications for the Conservative and Labour Parties as well as the likely response from Parliament and EU If you would like a copy of the note please contact us.

Prepare for Corbyn? Policies, implications and probabilities

Given last weeks local election results and the split within the Conservative Party investors need to take very seriously the possibility of a Corbyn victory. Our note examines the ley polcies a Corbyn led Government would likely adopt and its implications on capital markets. Please contact us for a copy.

The UK Consumer- underlying strength dampened by politicians

We have published a note this morning examining the health of the UK consumer. Our conclusions are despite undoubted political and confidence risk the underlying health is extraordinarily robust. We believe we are on the cusp of a significant increase in wage growth driven by a number of factors, but notably increased labour supply shortages, continuing employment creation, accommodate monetary policy, rising tax receipts giving £20-30bn of fiscal fire power and improving personal balance sheets.