Navigating the Unknown

We publish our outlook for capital markets for 2017 outlining multiple geo-political risks however we remain reasonably positive on equities with the US as our safe haven play. We expect the UK to also surprise on the upside. We see the greatest risk int he Eurozone with structural difficulties remaining unresolved. Please contact us for a copy of the note.

Political Risk - where next for popular revolt?

In this note, which we attach below, we examine some of the reasons why the political apple-cart has been over-turned and we look at the growth of non-establishment parties in the UK and the factors behind Trump’s success in the US. The key is however to look at what could happen in 2017 with some critical European national elections and we examine where the key risks lie and what the political implications of change may be. Please contact us for a copy of the note

The impact of inflation on UK equities

Given the sharp depreciation of Sterling inflationary expectations are rising. While we are less concerned about inflationary pressures than consensus this note looks at the impact of a possible rise on inflation on specific UK equity sectors. Please contact us for a copy of the publication.

Implications of Sterling's fall

Sterling's decline has resumed in the last week as it has become increasingly apparent that the Government will adopt a 'hard BREXIT' strategy. Since 22nd June 2016, the day before the EU referendum, to date, Sterling has declined by 16.6% against the USD and 14.3% against the Euro. This note looks at the implications of this material fall on inflation, monetary policy, growth, trade, politics and equity markets.Please do not hesitate to contact us for a copy of the note.

Quarterly Income Monitor

This is clearly an interesting time given recent gyrations in the bond yield curve however we observe that the yield gap relative to bonds remains extreme. This is at a time where the prospects for equity income growth, if anything, are improving aided by Sterling depreciation,a modest upswing in consensus forecasts and a revival from very low levels of commodity stocks earnings expectations.