Dividend Monitor

Our quarterly dividend monitor shows consensus dividend estimates holding however while we believe sustainable growing income streams to be a key investment criteria we are concerned that there is increasing risk to dividend maintenance amongst some of the highest yielding stocks, particularly in the mining and oil sectors. Consensus dividend growth for 2015 and 2016 of 7% and 6% respectively looks questionable albeit the income risk is concentrated to a small number of stocks. Please contact us for a copy of the report.

Economic Implications of Scottish Government Strategy

Walbrook Economics is delighted to have been commissioned to provide a comprehensive independent assessment of the Scottish government's proposals for fiscal autonomy. A copy of the report is available on request

Is it bad deflation?

This note looks at the likely direction of monetary policy in the light of today’s news of zero CPI. We briefly look at divergent recent inflationary trends, the different types of deflation and how it will impact Bank of England thinking.

The Budget- not the issue

The budget was a near irrelevance. Predictable and clever in its political expediency and designed to capture the undoubted ‘feel good.’ This note looks at two larger questions firstly are the UK’s public finances on track and indeed does it matter, given where bond yields are and related to that does the budget change the likely outcome of the election?

Income Growth- the last big hurrah

We are at FTSE 100 highs again – it has just taken 15 years to achieve it. Unfortunately this has coincided with PER valuations that, while justifiable, are no longer that cheap either by historical or international comparison.

Earnings momentum has stalled. The balance of forecasts are declining and while much of that is attributable to a fall in commodity prices, or stock specific in its nature, this is causing concern that equity markets are fully priced. Further domestic political risk adds to a general uncertainty.