We published our household spending model today and the outlook for discretionary spending is the strongest since the start of the credit crisis. This is driven by expectations of modestly improving real wage growth, modest tax falls for lower and middle income families, the impact of falling commodity prices and a subdued inflation environment generally. We see discretionary spending rising 4.7% in 2015 and 2.8% in 2016. Please contact us to discuss further.
This note examines differentiating performance and outlooks regionally and by asset class. We sees an increasingly divergent world with the US as the continuing safe haven. We argue that the UK faces increasing short term uncertainty, largely as a result of increasing political risk but also as a consequence of relative failure in controlling the fiscal deficit. Europe remains mired in our view. The upshot is continuing loose monetary environment that will drive equities higher. Bonds too will remain in bubble territory. Please contact us if you would like a copy of the note.
Walbrook Economics took part in the Institute of Economic Affairs Conference in Edinburgh presenting an outlook for the UK Economy. The theme was extremes examining the the degree of disequilibrium that remains despite improving GDP. A copy of this presentation is available on request.
Walbrook wrote the following article in City AM outlining the risks of Scottish Independence. Please click on the link for the article.
This paper looks back in time, examining one year forward FTSE 350 sector PER ratings, from mid-year to 2010 to mid-year 2013, then compares them with current sector valuations and anticipated earnings growth.