Walbrook Economics is delighted to have been commissioned, by the Scottish Research Society, to produce a paper outlining the costs and benefits of possible Scottish Independence. The paper examines a number of key aspects including Scotland's currency options, public spending and taxation, the dominance of the banking sector and the cyclicality of Scottish GDP. The also paper looks at trading relationships, demographics, energy policy and the mechanics of divorce.
Ewen Stewart of Walbrook Economics took part in a debate, with Professor Stephen Haseler, John Stevens and Dr Andrew Blick, organised by the Federal Trust, outlining the economic implications of Scottish Independence. The debate focused on the fiscal and monetary implications of a possible split highlighting the risks to both the UK and Scottish economies. Please contact us if you would like further details about the debate or for our opinion on the implications of the forthcoming Scottish referendum.
We re delighted to publish this paper by Paul Marsh of the London Business School and Scott Evans, of Walbrook Economics, looking at the Scottish quoted sector. This note examines the very long view, 60 years to be precise, and constructs a Scottish Index. The note examines the implications of possible independence on Scottish stocks and looks at the feasibility of establishing a Scottish Stock Exchange. Please email firstname.lastname@example.org for a copy of this report.
Since 2009 earnings have consistently recovered and are at a point, where many sectors, are earning at, or near, peak margin. Profits as a share of UK and US GDP are also near historic highs. This has been achieved despite an unbalanced global recovery. This paper outlines where the risks lie to forecasts on the upside and downside. It concludes that forecasts in the round are achievable but probably not exceedable. On balance the risk lies modestly on the downside in terms of consensus earnings expectations.
This note looks at the likely direction of UK monetary policy. We argue that a substantive rise in interest rates is unlikely, given the unbalanced nature of recovery, with blunt lending controls likely to be the Bank of England's policy tool of choice. The note outlines implications for equity, property and bond markets and concludes that negative real interest rates will drive real assets higher. Equities in particular should be prime beneficiaries and we re-iterate a bias towards risked sectors. Please contact us for a copy of the note