Under Pressure- risk of 'no deal' hits sterling

In this note we look at the outlook for Sterling which, in the short term at least, is tied into an analysis of the likely BREXIT outcome, the currency implications for the economy, interest rates and inflation concluding with the impact for equity investors. There are a lot of moving parts but in conclusion while we think it understandable that Sterling is under pressure we argue that, outside major political dislocation, it is oversold.

Boris Johnson's conjuring trick. Keeping everyone happy?

With the possibility that Boris Johnston will be the next Prime Minister we examine how it may be possible to reconcile his pledge to leave the EU on 31st October with a broadly hostile Parliament. We think the possibility of meeting this pledge is somewhat higher than the consensus view but we also explain why in reality it simply kicks the can further down the road. A copy of the note is available on request.