This note examines the recent move upwards in US Treasuries and the impact they have had on equities. We examine the prospects for US and European bonds and the impact for equities. Please contact us for a copy of the note.
This presentation outlines outlines our key recommendations for 2017. Global growth is picking up strongly, particularly in the US and Eurozone. The key rise is a rise in bond yields. However we remain optimistic on equities seeing scope for earnings upgrades. In terms of bonds while we expect US yields in particular to move out we remain of the view that the bond/ equity arbitrage is broadly in place. Please contact us for a copy of the presentation.
We have published a note examining the OBR's somewhat pessimistic economic view which we judge to be too bearish. The substantive reason for their concern is over productivity and in this note we highlight why we think the underlying position is stronger than they argue. Associated to this we re-examine the prospects for wage growth and again conclude there are grounds for optimism. Please contact us for a copy of the note.
The consensual view is that the UK consumer is under the cosh. Real wages are growing at less than CPI, interest rates are ticking up and the economic risks are perceived on the downside, hence the squeeze is on. But is this really true? Our analysis suggests, with some caveats, a cautiously more optimistic outlook.While the noise may be unrelentingly negative- be it political procrastination, weak and unstable Government and an unprecedented negative media narrative, so long as confidence holds, the consumer is set to surprise on the upside again.
Not since Michael Foots 1983 election campaign has the UK been faced with such a radical alternative to the general consensus that the free market is broadly the best way to order society in this country. Since 1979 the Government has oscillated between pink and light blue. Now the choice appears between tepid blue and deep red. The note looks at the probability of the current Government falling and examines the credibility of Corbyn's approach examining the likely equity, bond and currency consequences of a Labour Government. Please contact us for a copy.