Our director Ewen Stewart is delighted and honoured to be the guest speaker at the Adam Smith Lecture at Pembroke College, Cambridge on 13th November 2018. A copy of the lecture will be available after the event
It is a decade since Lehman Brothers collapsed. We have published a paper assessing the impact of the Great Recession on capital markets, what the current implications are and how this will likely play out in future. We argue that the US has increasingly differentiated itself from the rest and that the UK and Eurozone remain largely on a monetary treadmill they cannot easily get off. This has significant implications for bond and equity markets, as well as other asset classes.
This note provides an in depth study of the impact on on line retail on the retail sector as a whole. It analyses growth trends and concludes, although the UK has the highest on line penetration rate in the world, further cannibalisation will occur before equilibrium is met. While the impact on retail profitability is asymmetric further aggregate pressure on margins is likely. Please contact us for a copy of the note.
Post the recent disappointing Q1 GDP numbers we have published a report outlining our thoughts on the prospects for the UK economy. We remain fairly upbeat. More so for 2019 than 2018 driven by a resumption of positive real wage growth, some , perhaps miss-guided, scope for fiscal stimulus and a likely, at most, very cautious and slow unwinding of the loose monetary policy.
We have published an update on the state of the negotiations with a broadly positive prognosis for a positive conclusion. Some micro risks remain, notably in the food and beverage sectors and services generally but don't see BREXIT as a material market risk.