Yesterdays budget was politically reasonably astute, while being economically very modestly stimulatory. In our view their is modest upside potential for UK GDP estimates in 2020 and 21 with the outlook for the consumer, in particular, improving. The underlying implications for capital markets are pretty modest but the Chancellor retains firepower of perhaps between 0.7-1% GDP for further fiscal stimulus if required. If you would like a copy of the note please contact us.
Ewen Stewart, Walbrook Economics was interviewed by Vox Markets on the implications of the financial crisis. A link to the podcast is below.
Walbrook have co-authored, for SBUK, an in-depth analysis into the Scottish Economy particularity relating to constitutional change. The paper examines currency, regulatory, fiscal, trade and public spending issues relating to possible independence. Please contact us for a copy of the paper.
Our director Ewen Stewart is delighted and honoured to be the guest speaker at the Adam Smith Lecture at Pembroke College, Cambridge on 13th November 2018. A copy of the lecture will be available after the event
It is a decade since Lehman Brothers collapsed. We have published a paper assessing the impact of the Great Recession on capital markets, what the current implications are and how this will likely play out in future. We argue that the US has increasingly differentiated itself from the rest and that the UK and Eurozone remain largely on a monetary treadmill they cannot easily get off. This has significant implications for bond and equity markets, as well as other asset classes.