This paper looks at the possible scenarios for a post EU agreement and examines the economic and capital market implications under a so-called hard BREXIT
Investors are starting to focus on the possibility that Donald Trump might be impeached. This note looks at the possible process but more importantly the implications should such an outcome occur. Please contact us for a copy
Recent data has suggested the UK consumer boom may be over as inflationary pressures reduce spending power. Our analysis is that 2017 and 2018 will show a moderation in spending growth but by less than is generally considered. Real wage growth may well dip into negative territory but this will be off set largely by a continuing fall in the cost of borrowing which remains the principle sensitivity. Please contact us for a copy of the note.
We have published our UK Equity Income Monitor outlining our thoughts on equity income growth. The environment is about as positive as we can remember aided by continuing earnings growth and good momentum, the translation benefit from Sterling weakness and critically no end in sight to an accommodative monetary policy. The note looks at the outlook for bond yields, earnings momentum and Sterling and examines income trends across sectors. We conclude with a screen looking at income growth and positive earnings momentum.
Today's budget was a very relaxed affair of little consequence to investors. The real issue remains the direction of monetary policy in a world where the gap between UK and US Treasury yields has widened materially, inflation expectations and short term growth keeps on getting upgraded. Please contact us for a copy of the note.