We have published our UK Equity Income Monitor outlining our thoughts on equity income growth. The environment is about as positive as we can remember aided by continuing earnings growth and good momentum, the translation benefit from Sterling weakness and critically no end in sight to an accommodative monetary policy. The note looks at the outlook for bond yields, earnings momentum and Sterling and examines income trends across sectors. We conclude with a screen looking at income growth and positive earnings momentum.
Today's budget was a very relaxed affair of little consequence to investors. The real issue remains the direction of monetary policy in a world where the gap between UK and US Treasury yields has widened materially, inflation expectations and short term growth keeps on getting upgraded. Please contact us for a copy of the note.
'No sometimes means yes' as a judge famously once said. It looks increasingly likely that the SNP administration will ask for the power to call a 2nd Scottish Independence referendum shortly. This note looks at the political dynamics in Scotland, May's likely response and the probable outcome. We briefly examine the economic, political and market impacts of such a dynamic.
We have published the first note, in a proposed series of 4 looking at the key economic challenges facing the UK. This note looks at the longer term fiscal pressures and looks at the impact on the deficit under differing scenarios. Our key conclusions remain that, while capital markets are not currently focused on this issue, substantial imbalances remain and should growth slow the fiscal deficit could come back and bite hard.
Walbrook to part in a debate with Jim Mellon and Tim Congdon CBE outlining the key challenges facing the UK economy. We focused on the fiscal deficit, trade post the EU and constitutional reform. A copy of our presentation is available on request.