This paper is a thematic piece looking at the long term impact of demographic change. While the short term implications are perhaps marginal current trends suggest the world will be a very different place in a generation with significant implications for Western growth and geopolitical stability. For example wider Europe's share of global population has fallen from 21.7% in 1950 to 9.9% today. The decline is embedded. By contrast Africa's population has increased six fold since 1950, with a current average age of 19. Its 1950 8.1% share is 16.4% today and projected to be 25% by 2050.
The Italian Elections on March 4th are worth watching out for for two principle reasons; possible instability in Italian sovereign bond yields and also a test case for a possible end to austerity for a highly public indebted nation. The election results are likely to be inconclusive and garnering a coalition may be difficult given differing agendas and personalities but polling suggests there is a loose populist majority between the Five Start Movement, Berlusconi's Forza Italy and the Northern League may occur.
We have published an in depth report looking at the impact on BREXIT on the financial services industry. The report examines the importance of the industry to the UK economy, the current regulatory environment and the potential impact on the City under two scenarios ; the acceptance of equivalence and WTO. Please contact us for a copy of the report.
This note examines the recent move upwards in US Treasuries and the impact they have had on equities. We examine the prospects for US and European bonds and the impact for equities. Please contact us for a copy of the note.
This presentation outlines outlines our key recommendations for 2017. Global growth is picking up strongly, particularly in the US and Eurozone. The key rise is a rise in bond yields. However we remain optimistic on equities seeing scope for earnings upgrades. In terms of bonds while we expect US yields in particular to move out we remain of the view that the bond/ equity arbitrage is broadly in place. Please contact us for a copy of the presentation.