Today's budget was a very relaxed affair of little consequence to investors. The real issue remains the direction of monetary policy in a world where the gap between UK and US Treasury yields has widened materially, inflation expectations and short term growth keeps on getting upgraded. Please contact us for a copy of the note.
'No sometimes means yes' as a judge famously once said. It looks increasingly likely that the SNP administration will ask for the power to call a 2nd Scottish Independence referendum shortly. This note looks at the political dynamics in Scotland, May's likely response and the probable outcome. We briefly examine the economic, political and market impacts of such a dynamic.
We have published the first note, in a proposed series of 4 looking at the key economic challenges facing the UK. This note looks at the longer term fiscal pressures and looks at the impact on the deficit under differing scenarios. Our key conclusions remain that, while capital markets are not currently focused on this issue, substantial imbalances remain and should growth slow the fiscal deficit could come back and bite hard.
Walbrook to part in a debate with Jim Mellon and Tim Congdon CBE outlining the key challenges facing the UK economy. We focused on the fiscal deficit, trade post the EU and constitutional reform. A copy of our presentation is available on request.
It was a pleasure to get the opportunity to speak to school pupils at Wyke College, Hull discussing the outlook for the UK economy with 100+ well informed A level students. The key areas of discussion included how monetary policy could safely be unwound, could the Eurozone survive without fiscal and debt union and the impact of China on the global economy.