Yesterday saw Mrs May's first major speech outlining the detail on 'BREXIT means BREXIT.' The only analysis one can make is that HMG is working towards a 'hard' BREXIT outside the Single Market, ECJ, freedom of movement and significant budget payment but trying to strike a free trade deal. The paper briefly summarises the content of her speech but then examines where the pit falls lie and where the key negotiating strengths and weaknesses rest. We look at likely timelines and probabilities and the impact on capital markets.
We publish our outlook for capital markets for 2017 outlining multiple geo-political risks however we remain reasonably positive on equities with the US as our safe haven play. We expect the UK to also surprise on the upside. We see the greatest risk int he Eurozone with structural difficulties remaining unresolved. Please contact us for a copy of the note.
In this note, which we attach below, we examine some of the reasons why the political apple-cart has been over-turned and we look at the growth of non-establishment parties in the UK and the factors behind Trump’s success in the US. The key is however to look at what could happen in 2017 with some critical European national elections and we examine where the key risks lie and what the political implications of change may be. Please contact us for a copy of the note
Given the sharp depreciation of Sterling inflationary expectations are rising. While we are less concerned about inflationary pressures than consensus this note looks at the impact of a possible rise on inflation on specific UK equity sectors. Please contact us for a copy of the publication.
Sterling's decline has resumed in the last week as it has become increasingly apparent that the Government will adopt a 'hard BREXIT' strategy. Since 22nd June 2016, the day before the EU referendum, to date, Sterling has declined by 16.6% against the USD and 14.3% against the Euro. This note looks at the implications of this material fall on inflation, monetary policy, growth, trade, politics and equity markets.Please do not hesitate to contact us for a copy of the note.